Spending Trends

Federal Contract Market Concentration Trends

Federal Contract Market Concentration Trends shows how federal contract spending changes across the visible time series in FPDS-derived procurement data.

The latest visible point is 2025 at 81. Across the visible range, the series changed by -99.19%.

Federal Contract Spending Spending Trends Spending Series Series

Updated 03/20/2026

Latest Period

2025

Visible Change

-99.19%

-9.92K

Peak Period

1962

10K

Trend Direction

Down

Strong

Analysis

The latest visible point is 2025 at 81. Across the visible range, the series changed by -99.19%.

Why it matters: Use this page to evaluate how federal contract spending levels shift over time and identify inflection points.

Methodology: The query returns a structured time series, detects a period column and a primary numeric metric, and computes visible-series statistics such as latest value, peak, low, and overall change.

Commentary

Federal Contract Market Concentration Trends tracks federal contract spending over time in FPDS-derived data.

Key takeaway: The latest visible point is 2025 at 81. Overall visible change is -99.19%.

Analyst note: This page is best used for directional review, turning points, and quick comparison against related time windows or scopes.

Trend Chart

This chart plots Federal Contract Spending over the visible time series returned by the query.

Query Used

-- Federal Contract Market Concentration Trends
-- Measures annual market concentration using HHI based on contractor share of obligated dollars
SELECT
    fiscal_year,
    round(sum(spend_share * spend_share) * 10000, 2) AS hhi,
    count() AS vendor_count,
    round(max(spend_share) * 100, 2) AS top_vendor_share_pct,
    round(sumIf(spend_share, vendor_rank <= 4) * 100, 2) AS top_4_share_pct,
    round(sumIf(spend_share, vendor_rank <= 10) * 100, 2) AS top_10_share_pct
FROM
(
    SELECT
        fiscal_year,
        vendor_name,
        vendor_spending,
        vendor_spending / sum(vendor_spending) OVER (PARTITION BY fiscal_year) AS spend_share,
        row_number() OVER (
            PARTITION BY fiscal_year
            ORDER BY vendor_spending DESC, vendor_name ASC
        ) AS vendor_rank
    FROM
    (
        SELECT
            if(
                toUInt8(substring(content__award__relevantContractDates__signedDate, 6, 2)) >= 10,
                toUInt16(substring(content__award__relevantContractDates__signedDate, 1, 4)) + 1,
                toUInt16(substring(content__award__relevantContractDates__signedDate, 1, 4))
            ) AS fiscal_year,
            content__award__vendor__vendorHeader__vendorName AS vendor_name,
            sum(content__award__dollarValues__obligatedAmount) AS vendor_spending
        FROM fpds.data
        WHERE
            contract_type = 1
            AND content__award__relevantContractDates__signedDate != ''
            AND content__award__vendor__vendorHeader__vendorName IS NOT NULL
            AND content__award__vendor__vendorHeader__vendorName != ''
        GROUP BY
            fiscal_year,
            vendor_name
    )
)
WHERE fiscal_year < toYear(today())
GROUP BY fiscal_year
ORDER BY fiscal_year ASC

Trend Table

This table shows the structured time series returned by the query.

Fiscal Year	Hhi	Vendor Count	Top Vendor Share Pct	Top 4 Share Pct	Top 10 Share Pct
1962	10,000.00	1	100	100	100
1965	10,000.00	1	100	100	100
1967	6,525.00	2	78	99	99
1970	10,000.00	1	100	100	100
1972	10,000.00	1	100	100	100
1974	9,041.00	2	95	99	99
1976	5,892.00	30	74	98	98
1977	6,305.00	6	78	97	97
1978	3,814.00	21	54	93	96
1979	236.00	19256	10	27	41
1980	82.00	21065	4	14	25
1981	83.00	22841	4	15	25
1982	86.00	22704	6	14	22
1983	85.00	14370	5	14	25
1984	75.00	19017	5	14	22
1985	294.00	10302	13	29	37
1986	91.00	14691	7	15	23
1987	64.00	55641	4	12	22
1988	321.00	13853	11	34	39
1989	27.00	71845	3	8	14
1990	16.00	83930	2	6	12
1991	31.00	88370	3	9	16
1992	23.00	96638	2	7	13
1993	21.00	88577	3	7	13
1994	58.00	87489	6	13	18
1995	18.00	84550	2	7	12
1996	58.00	87412	6	13	14
1997	35.00	80626	5	10	11
1998	46.00	61845	6	10	14
1999	44.00	64263	6	10	12
2000	43.00	68834	6	10	11
2001	49.00	73804	6	11	15
2002	32.00	88194	5	9	10
2003	49.00	132819	6	11	15
2004	36.00	170048	5	10	12
2005	21.00	222320	4	7	9
2006	30.00	228192	5	8	10
2007	29.00	214948	5	8	9
2008	26.00	246337	4	8	12
2009	28.00	211828	4	8	10
2010	23.00	205895	4	8	9
2011	32.00	196347	5	9	10
2012	37.00	175357	5	10	13
2013	59.00	155762	7	11	15
2014	38.00	148796	5	10	14
2015	48.00	145928	6	11	14
2016	69.00	143424	7	14	17
2017	77.00	149602	8	13	17
2018	59.00	129755	6	13	17
2019	66.00	118931	7	13	18
2020	114.00	115517	10	15	20
2021	45.00	109394	5	11	17
2022	54.00	106225	6	12	18
2023	83.00	111459	8	14	20
2024	43.00	111561	5	11	17
2025	81.00	104272	8	14	19

How This Trend Is Built

Measure how a selected procurement metric changes across time.

Query structure

The query selects a time dimension used as the x-axis for the trend.
It calculates or returns a numeric metric for each visible period.
The result is interpreted as a chronological series for trend analysis.
The metric focuses on obligated dollars or a directly related spending aggregate.

Included fields

fiscal_year — Defines the chronological unit used for the trend series.
hhi — Defines the main value plotted and analyzed over time.
vendor_count — Provides additional numeric context that can support interpretation.
top_vendor_share_pct — Provides additional numeric context that can support interpretation.
top_4_share_pct — Provides additional numeric context that can support interpretation.
top_10_share_pct — Provides additional numeric context that can support interpretation.

How to use this trend

trend direction analysis
time-series review
federal procurement timing analysis
spending trajectory review
budget pattern review

Computed Metrics

Series Points

First Visible Point

1962

10K

Mean

1,332.89

Median

58.00

Max

10,000.00

1962

Min

16.00

1990

Volatility

3,030.27

3.03K

Rows Returned

Series Extremes

Largest Increase

3.48K

1967 → 1970 · 53.26%

Largest Decrease

-3.58K

1978 → 1979 · -93.81%

8(a) Contract Spending Trends

Series

California Federal Contract Spending Trends

Series

Competed vs Sole Source Spending Trends

Series

Cost-Reimbursement Contract Spending Trends

Series

Department of Agriculture Contract Spending Trends

Series

Department of Defense Contract Spending Trends

Series

Department of Education Contract Spending Trends

Series

Department of Energy Contract Spending Trends

Series

Method Notes

Trend interpretation is based on the returned query result set ordered by the detected period column.
Change metrics compare the first visible point and the latest visible point in the series.
Volatility is based on the standard deviation of the visible numeric series.

Use FPDS Query for deeper trend analysis

Go beyond the published time series with custom SQL, broader filters, saved queries, and deeper procurement analysis across agencies, vendors, industries, states, contract structures, and competitive segments.

Continue from this trend page into full FPDS Query workflows with deeper filtering, custom SQL, saved queries, and broader market comparison.

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Analysis

Trend Chart

Query Used

Trend Table

How This Trend Is Built

Computed Metrics

Series Extremes

Related Pages

8(a) Contract Spending Trends

California Federal Contract Spending Trends

Competed vs Sole Source Spending Trends

Cost-Reimbursement Contract Spending Trends

Department of Agriculture Contract Spending Trends

Department of Defense Contract Spending Trends

Department of Education Contract Spending Trends

Department of Energy Contract Spending Trends

Method Notes

Use FPDS Query for deeper trend analysis