Spending Trends

Federal Contract Spending Seasonality

Federal Contract Spending Seasonality shows how spending seasonality changes across the visible time series in FPDS-derived procurement data.

The latest visible point is 12 at 32.17%. Across the visible range, the series changed by 38.84%.

Spending Seasonality Spending Trends Seasonality Seasonality Seasonality

Updated 03/20/2026

Latest Period

32.17%

Visible Change

38.84%

9.00%

Peak Period

51.85%

Trend Direction

Moderate

Analysis

The latest visible point is 12 at 32.17%. Across the visible range, the series changed by 38.84%.

Why it matters: Use this page to detect recurring timing patterns in the federal procurement cycle.

Methodology: The query returns a structured time series, detects a period column and a primary numeric metric, and computes visible-series statistics such as latest value, peak, low, and overall change.

Commentary

Federal Contract Spending Seasonality tracks spending seasonality over time in FPDS-derived data.

Key takeaway: The latest visible point is 12 at 32.17%. Overall visible change is 38.84%.

Analyst note: This page is best used for directional review, turning points, and quick comparison against related time windows or scopes.

Trend Chart

This chart plots Spending Seasonality over the visible time series returned by the query.

Query Used

-- Federal Contract Spending Seasonality (monthly pattern across all years)
SELECT
    month,
    round(avg(monthly_spending) / 1000000000, 2) AS avg_spending_billion_usd,
    round(
        avg(monthly_spending)
        / sum(avg(monthly_spending)) OVER () * 100,
        2
    ) AS share_pct,
    count() AS months_count
FROM
(
    SELECT
        toUInt8(substring(content__award__relevantContractDates__signedDate, 6, 2)) AS month,
        sum(content__award__dollarValues__obligatedAmount) AS monthly_spending
    FROM fpds.data
    WHERE
        contract_type = 1
        AND content__award__relevantContractDates__signedDate != ''
    GROUP BY
        toUInt16(substring(content__award__relevantContractDates__signedDate, 1, 4)),
        month
)
GROUP BY month
ORDER BY month ASC

Trend Table

This table shows the structured time series returned by the query.

Month	Avg Spending Billion Usd	Share Pct	Months Count
1	23.17	7.06	53
2	23.52	7.16	49
3	30.58	9.32	50
4	23.92	7.29	49
5	21.18	6.45	51
6	24.48	7.46	52
7	23.24	7.08	49
8	24.57	7.48	50
9	51.85	15.79	51
10	25.84	7.87	51
11	23.78	7.24	50
12	32.17	9.8	48

How This Trend Is Built

Measure how a selected procurement metric changes across time.

Query structure

The query selects a time dimension used as the x-axis for the trend.
It calculates or returns a numeric metric for each visible period.
The result is interpreted as a chronological series for trend analysis.
The metric focuses on cyclical procurement behavior.

Included fields

month — Defines the chronological unit used for the trend series.
avg_spending_billion_usd — Defines the main value plotted and analyzed over time.
share_pct — Provides additional numeric context that can support interpretation.
months_count — Provides additional numeric context that can support interpretation.

How to use this trend

trend direction analysis
time-series review
federal procurement timing analysis
cyclical pattern detection

Computed Metrics

Series Points

First Visible Point

23.17%

Mean

27.36

Median

24.20

Max

51.85

Min

21.18

Volatility

7.98

7.98%

Rows Returned

Series Extremes

Largest Increase

27.28%

8 → 9 · 111.03%

Largest Decrease

-26.01%

9 → 10 · -50.16%

Method Notes

Trend interpretation is based on the returned query result set ordered by the detected period column.
Change metrics compare the first visible point and the latest visible point in the series.
Volatility is based on the standard deviation of the visible numeric series.

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