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Spending Trends

Long-Term Federal Contract Spending Trends

Long-Term Federal Contract Spending Trends shows how federal contract spending changes across the visible time series in FPDS-derived procurement data.

The latest visible point is 2025 at 754. Across the visible range, the series changed by 259.54%.

Federal Contract Spending Spending Trends Spending Long Term Long Term

Updated 03/20/2026

Latest Period
2025
754
Visible Change
259.54%
544.29
Peak Period
2024
754.65
Trend Direction
Up
Very Strong

Analysis

The latest visible point is 2025 at 754. Across the visible range, the series changed by 259.54%.

Why it matters: Use this page to evaluate how federal contract spending levels shift over time and identify inflection points.

Methodology: The query returns a structured time series, detects a period column and a primary numeric metric, and computes visible-series statistics such as latest value, peak, low, and overall change.

Commentary

Long-Term Federal Contract Spending Trends tracks federal contract spending over time in FPDS-derived data.

Key takeaway: The latest visible point is 2025 at 754. Overall visible change is 259.54%.

Analyst note: This page is best used for directional review, turning points, and quick comparison against related time windows or scopes.

Trend Chart

This chart plots Federal Contract Spending over the visible time series returned by the query.

Query Used

-- Long-Term Federal Contract Spending Trends (exclude current year)
SELECT
    fiscal_year,
    round(sum(obligated_amount) / 1000000000, 2) AS spending_billion_usd,
    count() AS award_count,
    round(sum(obligated_amount) / count(), 0) AS avg_award_size
FROM
(
    SELECT
        toUInt16(substring(content__award__relevantContractDates__signedDate, 1, 4)) AS fiscal_year,
        content__award__dollarValues__obligatedAmount AS obligated_amount
    FROM fpds.data
    WHERE
        contract_type = 1
        AND content__award__relevantContractDates__signedDate != ''
)
WHERE
    fiscal_year >= 2000
    AND fiscal_year < toYear(today())
GROUP BY fiscal_year
ORDER BY fiscal_year ASC

Trend Table

This table shows the structured time series returned by the query.

Fiscal Year Spending Billion Usd Award Count Avg Award Size
2000 209.71 575374 364488
2001 215.71 654605 329534
2002 284.17 848792 334801
2003 345.09 1416951 243547
2004 344.09 2043669 168372
2005 378.05 2846001 132836
2006 452.70 3879672 116686
2007 460.54 4142604 111173
2008 560.97 4161148 134813
2009 514.98 3364015 153085
2010 530.23 3362057 157711
2011 520.31 3170494 164112
2012 537.71 2825540 190304
2013 423.33 2288612 184972
2014 449.48 2866742 156792
2015 428.39 4140756 103459
2016 478.95 4656133 102865
2017 503.92 4930424 102207
2018 588.89 5658496 104074
2019 567.38 6152836 92215
2020 643.56 6076165 105916
2021 646.76 6196135 104383
2022 687.00 6447784 106549
2023 753.89 6530059 115450
2024 754.65 6396614 117977
2025 754.00 6070936 124200

How This Trend Is Built

Measure how a selected procurement metric changes across time.

Query structure

  • The query selects a time dimension used as the x-axis for the trend.
  • It calculates or returns a numeric metric for each visible period.
  • The result is interpreted as a chronological series for trend analysis.
  • The metric focuses on obligated dollars or a directly related spending aggregate.

Included fields

  • fiscal_year — Defines the chronological unit used for the trend series.
  • spending_billion_usd — Defines the main value plotted and analyzed over time.
  • award_count — Provides additional numeric context that can support interpretation.
  • avg_award_size — Provides additional numeric context that can support interpretation.

How to use this trend

  • trend direction analysis
  • time-series review
  • federal procurement timing analysis
  • spending trajectory review
  • budget pattern review

Computed Metrics

Series Points
26
First Visible Point
2000
209.71
Mean
501.33
Median
509.45
Max
754.65
2024
Min
209.71
2000
Volatility
149.70
149.7
Rows Returned
26

Series Extremes

Largest Increase
100.43
2007 → 2008 · 21.81%
Largest Decrease
-114.38
2012 → 2013 · -21.27%

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Method Notes

  • Trend interpretation is based on the returned query result set ordered by the detected period column.
  • Change metrics compare the first visible point and the latest visible point in the series.
  • Volatility is based on the standard deviation of the visible numeric series.

Use FPDS Query for deeper trend analysis

Go beyond the published time series with custom SQL, broader filters, saved queries, and deeper procurement analysis across agencies, vendors, industries, states, contract structures, and competitive segments.

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