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Spending Trends

Q4 Federal Contract Spending Surge

Q4 Federal Contract Spending Surge shows how federal contract spending changes across the visible time series in FPDS-derived procurement data.

The latest visible point is 2025 at 291.2B. Across the visible range, the series changed by 505,855,192.59%.

Federal Contract Spending Spending Trends Spending Quarter Q4

Updated 03/20/2026

Latest Period
2025
291.2B
Visible Change
505,855,192.59%
291.2B
Peak Period
2025
291.2B
Trend Direction
Up
Very Strong

Analysis

The latest visible point is 2025 at 291.2B. Across the visible range, the series changed by 505,855,192.59%.

Why it matters: Use this page to evaluate how federal contract spending levels shift over time and identify inflection points.

Methodology: The query returns a structured time series, detects a period column and a primary numeric metric, and computes visible-series statistics such as latest value, peak, low, and overall change.

Commentary

Q4 Federal Contract Spending Surge tracks federal contract spending over time in FPDS-derived data.

Key takeaway: The latest visible point is 2025 at 291.2B. Overall visible change is 505,855,192.59%.

Analyst note: This page is best used for directional review, turning points, and quick comparison against related time windows or scopes.

Trend Chart

This chart plots Federal Contract Spending over the visible time series returned by the query.

Query Used

-- Q4 Federal Contract Spending Surge (compare Q4 vs other quarters by fiscal year)
SELECT
    fiscal_year,
    sumIf(obligated_amount, fiscal_quarter = 4) AS q4_spending,
    sumIf(obligated_amount, fiscal_quarter != 4) AS other_quarters_spending,
    round(q4_spending / 1000000000, 2) AS q4_spending_billion_usd,
    round(other_quarters_spending / 1000000000, 2) AS other_spending_billion_usd,
    round(q4_spending / (q4_spending + other_quarters_spending) * 100, 2) AS q4_share_pct
FROM
(
    SELECT
        if(
            toUInt8(substring(content__award__relevantContractDates__signedDate, 6, 2)) >= 10,
            toUInt16(substring(content__award__relevantContractDates__signedDate, 1, 4)) + 1,
            toUInt16(substring(content__award__relevantContractDates__signedDate, 1, 4))
        ) AS fiscal_year,
        multiIf(
            toUInt8(substring(content__award__relevantContractDates__signedDate, 6, 2)) IN (10, 11, 12), 1,
            toUInt8(substring(content__award__relevantContractDates__signedDate, 6, 2)) IN (1, 2, 3), 2,
            toUInt8(substring(content__award__relevantContractDates__signedDate, 6, 2)) IN (4, 5, 6), 3,
            4
        ) AS fiscal_quarter,
        content__award__dollarValues__obligatedAmount AS obligated_amount
    FROM fpds.data
    WHERE
        contract_type = 1
        AND content__award__relevantContractDates__signedDate != ''
)
WHERE fiscal_year < toYear(today()) + 1
GROUP BY fiscal_year
ORDER BY fiscal_year ASC

Trend Table

This table shows the structured time series returned by the query.

Fiscal Year Q4 Spending Other Quarters Spending Q4 Spending Billion Usd Other Spending Billion Usd Q4 Share Pct
1962 — 5696246 — 0 —
1965 — 77000 — 0 —
1967 57,565.00 15397 0 0 78
1970 — 12164 — 0 —
1972 — 333682 — 0 —
1973 91,809.00 — 0 — —
1974 — 47557300 — 0.04 —
1975 — 88000 — 0 —
1976 643,000.00 2267185481 0 2.26 0
1977 7,451,118.00 324368581 0 0.32 2
1978 12,357,411,252.00 41868407 12.35 0.04 99
1979 22,845,776,175.31 63781793864.25 22.84 63.78 26
1980 26,573,080,031.99 76705302349.99 26.57 76.7 25
1981 32,442,405,565.44 90771423528.81 32.44 90.77 26
1982 37,025,065,875.04 101771502257.12 37.02 101.77 26
1983 34,589,544,243.17 105414771356.82 34.58 105.41 24
1984 38,576,812,756.00 117539255959.81 38.57 117.53 24
1985 43,194,769,631.77 135349267263.33 43.19 135.34 24
1986 43,639,733,104.10 128922436533.29 43.63 128.92 25
1987 52,413,911,332.65 118933329300.36 52.41 118.93 30
1988 41,573,828,241.61 135033695412 41.57 135.03 23
1989 36,626,261,345.94 110671240605.17 36.62 110.67 24
1990 40,386,333,232.97 112115411523.38 40.38 112.11 26
1991 48,857,323,266.15 122034119143.55 48.85 122.03 28
1992 41,349,273,651.93 115942156605.72 41.34 115.94 26
1993 42,241,828,944.70 101788917905.8 42.24 101.78 29
1994 44,761,765,186.35 126911901193.58 44.76 126.91 26
1995 48,469,003,674.48 128267967983.9 48.46 128.26 27
1996 60,519,281,699.71 133225282770.89 60.51 133.22 31
1997 41,826,607,758.68 134804411055.83 41.82 134.8 23
1998 43,209,934,884.33 142457536089.7 43.2 142.45 23
1999 47,922,764,666.60 141324738772.5 47.92 141.32 25
2000 52,125,332,131.43 154968804127.72 52.12 154.96 25
2001 54,942,259,032.38 168357274534.48 54.94 168.35 24
2002 72,701,594,359.15 191614862798.87 72.7 191.61 27
2003 95,110,320,727.35 229579968783.53 95.11 229.57 29
2004 81,078,409,948.51 254943054618.14 81.07 254.94 24
2005 103,863,506,440.81 284823896104.36 103.86 284.82 26
2006 124,243,110,478.58 303413669423.48 124.24 303.41 29
2007 139,971,237,611.63 326374898457.3 139.97 326.37 30
2008 181,934,371,581.54 356089881770.15 181.93 356.08 33
2009 172,047,735,688.87 364257264120.55 172.04 364.25 32
2010 167,734,349,512.76 367859479756.77 167.73 367.85 31
2011 178,471,505,867.27 356085686511.57 178.47 356.08 33
2012 161,472,061,910.09 354375918047.5 161.47 354.37 31
2013 155,883,202,695.56 303547778292.41 155.88 303.54 33
2014 142,730,827,705.60 298566227371.21 142.73 298.56 32
2015 134,513,648,440.13 297619701676.7 134.51 297.61 31
2016 147,269,493,276.79 317289398794.66 147.26 317.28 31
2017 171,513,709,012.83 331111689262.6 171.51 331.11 34
2018 184,757,510,312.77 362008031558.34 184.75 362 33
2019 177,514,768,136.65 402274776667.86 177.51 402.27 30
2020 189,902,154,282.86 468936259344.46 189.9 468.93 28
2021 204,366,954,136.43 430278556709.28 204.36 430.27 32
2022 236,728,898,991.53 445188078226.69 236.72 445.18 34
2023 243,889,283,684.49 504105037700.43 243.88 504.1 32
2024 264,422,673,372.62 477619550915.53 264.42 477.61 35
2025 291,195,599,178.26 488957140980.99 291.19 488.95 37
2026 — 198848757339.11 — 198.84 —

How This Trend Is Built

Measure how a selected procurement metric changes across time.

Query structure

  • The query selects a time dimension used as the x-axis for the trend.
  • It calculates or returns a numeric metric for each visible period.
  • The result is interpreted as a chronological series for trend analysis.
  • The metric focuses on obligated dollars or a directly related spending aggregate.

Included fields

  • fiscal_year — Defines the chronological unit used for the trend series.
  • q4_spending — Defines the main value plotted and analyzed over time.
  • other_quarters_spending — Provides additional numeric context that can support interpretation.
  • q4_spending_billion_usd — Provides additional numeric context that can support interpretation.
  • other_spending_billion_usd — Provides additional numeric context that can support interpretation.
  • q4_share_pct — Provides additional numeric context that can support interpretation.

How to use this trend

  • trend direction analysis
  • time-series review
  • federal procurement timing analysis
  • spending trajectory review
  • budget pattern review

Computed Metrics

Series Points
52
First Visible Point
1967
57.57K
Mean
96,380,682,279.42
Median
53,678,085,182.52
Max
291,195,599,178.26
2025
Min
57,565.00
1967
Volatility
76,369,196,024.87
76.37B
Rows Returned
59

Series Extremes

Largest Increase
41.96B
2007 → 2008 · 29.98%
Largest Decrease
-18.69B
1996 → 1997 · -30.89%

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Method Notes

  • Trend interpretation is based on the returned query result set ordered by the detected period column.
  • Change metrics compare the first visible point and the latest visible point in the series.
  • Volatility is based on the standard deviation of the visible numeric series.

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