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Spending Trends

Small vs Large Contractor Spending Trends

Small vs Large Contractor Spending Trends shows how federal contract spending changes across the visible time series in FPDS-derived procurement data.

The latest visible point is 2025 at 30.35.

Federal Contract Spending Spending Trends Spending Series Series

Updated 03/20/2026

Latest Period
2025
30.35
Visible Change
—
30.35
Peak Period
2025
749.79
Trend Direction
Up
Unknown

Analysis

The latest visible point is 2025 at 30.35.

Why it matters: Use this page to evaluate how federal contract spending levels shift over time and identify inflection points.

Methodology: The query returns a structured time series, detects a period column and a primary numeric metric, and computes visible-series statistics such as latest value, peak, low, and overall change.

Commentary

Small vs Large Contractor Spending Trends tracks federal contract spending over time in FPDS-derived data.

Key takeaway: The latest visible point is 2025 at 30.35.

Analyst note: This page is best used for directional review, turning points, and quick comparison against related time windows or scopes.

Trend Chart

This chart plots Federal Contract Spending over the visible time series returned by the query.

Query Used

-- Small vs Large Contractor Spending Trends
SELECT
    fiscal_year,
    contractor_size,
    round(sum(obligated_amount) / 1000000000, 2) AS spending_billion_usd,
    count() AS award_count,
    round(sum(obligated_amount) / count(), 0) AS avg_award_size
FROM
(
    SELECT
        if(
            toUInt8(substring(content__award__relevantContractDates__signedDate, 6, 2)) >= 10,
            toUInt16(substring(content__award__relevantContractDates__signedDate, 1, 4)) + 1,
            toUInt16(substring(content__award__relevantContractDates__signedDate, 1, 4))
        ) AS fiscal_year,
        if(
            content__award__vendor__vendorSiteDetails__vendorSocioEconomicIndicators__isSmallBusiness = 1,
            'Small Business',
            'Large Business'
        ) AS contractor_size,
        content__award__dollarValues__obligatedAmount AS obligated_amount
    FROM fpds.data
    WHERE
        contract_type = 1
        AND content__award__relevantContractDates__signedDate != ''
)
WHERE fiscal_year < toYear(today())
GROUP BY
    fiscal_year,
    contractor_size
ORDER BY
    fiscal_year ASC,
    contractor_size ASC

Trend Table

This table shows the structured time series returned by the query.

Fiscal Year Contractor Size Spending Billion Usd Award Count Avg Award Size
1962 Large Business 0.00 1 5696246
1965 Large Business 0.00 1 77000
1967 Large Business 0.00 2 36481
1970 Large Business 0.00 1 12164
1972 Large Business 0.00 1 333682
1973 Large Business 0.00 1 91809
1974 Large Business 0.04 2 23778650
1975 Large Business 0.00 1 88000
1976 Large Business 2.26 46 49300619
1977 Large Business 0.33 8 41477462
1978 Large Business 12.38 43 288122783
1978 Small Business 0.01 1 10000000
1979 Large Business 73.37 234340 313122
1979 Small Business 13.25 137035 96695
1980 Large Business 88.18 327351 269388
1980 Small Business 15.09 179525 84078
1981 Large Business 103.69 297058 349084
1981 Small Business 19.51 177405 110006
1982 Large Business 116.32 327798 354880
1982 Small Business 22.46 206446 108830
1983 Large Business 118.87 226819 524087
1983 Small Business 21.13 156334 135169
1984 Large Business 132.32 228212 579848
1984 Small Business 23.78 163888 145146
1985 Large Business 153.24 231990 660578
1985 Small Business 25.29 176876 143018
1986 Large Business 146.18 229876 635938
1986 Small Business 26.37 171354 153922
1987 Large Business 145.02 232264 624390
1987 Small Business 26.32 175567 149937
1988 Large Business 151.25 226233 668593
1988 Small Business 25.34 161256 157202
1989 Large Business 123.88 175642 705306
1989 Small Business 23.41 145902 160492
1990 Large Business 126.85 189864 668130
1990 Small Business 25.64 175606 146054
1991 Large Business 142.60 211728 673518
1991 Small Business 28.28 203298 139149
1992 Large Business 130.15 239910 542526
1992 Small Business 27.13 243707 111339
1993 Large Business 118.44 206827 572700
1993 Small Business 25.58 207049 123550
1994 Large Business 144.01 219869 655010
1994 Small Business 27.65 218002 126867
1995 Large Business 144.80 279415 518246
1995 Small Business 31.93 243049 131378
1996 Large Business 161.08 302790 531992
1996 Small Business 32.66 283933 115037
1997 Large Business 145.22 283407 512442
1997 Small Business 31.40 212351 147875
1998 Large Business 152.55 290195 525703
1998 Small Business 33.11 210206 157518
1999 Large Business 155.20 300694 516158
1999 Small Business 34.04 216891 156953
2000 Large Business 170.47 333293 511478
2000 Small Business 36.62 235487 155517
2001 Large Business 183.86 358866 512353
2001 Small Business 39.43 257044 153411
2002 Large Business 216.00 465918 463605
2002 Small Business 48.31 329365 146690
2003 Large Business 270.29 651877 414646
2003 Small Business 54.39 483160 112575
2004 Large Business 279.29 1041361 268205
2004 Small Business 56.72 872784 64992
2005 Large Business 324.56 1682277 192930
2005 Small Business 64.12 1169496 54831
2006 Large Business 356.78 2053987 173703
2006 Small Business 70.87 1672203 42383
2007 Large Business 415.79 3068675 135498
2007 Small Business 50.54 942685 53621
2008 Large Business 489.64 3730176 131265
2008 Small Business 48.38 667348 72502
2009 Large Business 520.62 3249641 160210
2009 Small Business 15.68 101628 154303
2010 Large Business 519.30 3270442 158789
2010 Small Business 16.28 105608 154194
2011 Large Business 519.47 3110925 166984
2011 Small Business 15.08 120601 125056
2012 Large Business 499.88 2808833 177970
2012 Small Business 15.96 143474 111246
2013 Large Business 448.68 2189219 204952
2013 Small Business 10.74 130177 82554
2014 Large Business 429.80 2208399 194624
2014 Small Business 11.48 125562 91497
2015 Large Business 419.97 3978480 105561
2015 Small Business 12.16 203842 59657
2016 Large Business 450.08 4369846 102997
2016 Small Business 14.47 254762 56828
2017 Large Business 486.20 4449401 109274
2017 Small Business 16.41 266848 61532
2018 Large Business 528.15 5130998 102934
2018 Small Business 18.60 276968 67191
2019 Large Business 558.72 5883247 94969
2019 Small Business 21.06 414104 50863
2020 Large Business 635.88 5633093 112884
2020 Small Business 22.95 417020 55040
2021 Large Business 612.13 5788218 105756
2021 Small Business 22.50 399105 56393
2022 Large Business 657.09 5983726 109813
2022 Small Business 24.82 442666 56080
2023 Large Business 720.17 5994030 120150
2023 Small Business 27.81 465038 59811
2024 Large Business 712.48 5978215 119179
2024 Small Business 29.56 461862 64006
2025 Large Business 749.79 5876076 127601
2025 Small Business 30.35 457488 66361

How This Trend Is Built

Measure how a selected procurement metric changes across time.

Query structure

  • The query selects a time dimension used as the x-axis for the trend.
  • It calculates or returns a numeric metric for each visible period.
  • The result is interpreted as a chronological series for trend analysis.
  • The metric focuses on obligated dollars or a directly related spending aggregate.

Included fields

  • fiscal_year — Defines the chronological unit used for the trend series.
  • spending_billion_usd — Defines the main value plotted and analyzed over time.
  • award_count — Provides additional numeric context that can support interpretation.
  • avg_award_size — Provides additional numeric context that can support interpretation.

How to use this trend

  • trend direction analysis
  • time-series review
  • federal procurement timing analysis
  • spending trajectory review
  • budget pattern review

Computed Metrics

Series Points
106
First Visible Point
1962
Mean
153.75
Median
48.35
Max
749.79
2025
Min
0.00
1962
Volatility
200.84
200.84
Rows Returned
106

Series Extremes

Largest Increase
720.23
2024 → 2025 · 2,436.50%
Largest Decrease
-719.44
2025 → 2025 · -95.95%

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Method Notes

  • Trend interpretation is based on the returned query result set ordered by the detected period column.
  • Change metrics compare the first visible point and the latest visible point in the series.
  • Volatility is based on the standard deviation of the visible numeric series.

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